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本帖最后由 八翼天使 于 2016-03-08 20:01:43 编辑
3月超级翻牌值得花金吗？ 猴年超级翻牌大改版，抽中至尊卡片出现3张14星卡片，高等级宝石有14星、15星、16星。消费金币均没有改变。由于16星宝石的推出，超级翻牌变数较多，我们把各种性价比的组合进行归纳总结。 先看看至尊组合，3个14星组合，无论是幸运抽中还是花金购买，至尊组合20金收获2个14星宝石（16384个宝石），性价比1金820个宝石左右，对于小微R、非R玩家远远不够看。因此本文不专门分析1金1000个宝石以下的组合。为了便于统计，13星及以下卡片统一归并在一起，称为垃圾卡片，每张按照12星宝石计算（虽然有偏差，不影响总的花金性价比）。常见的组合如下图： ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416841"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416841f5e6ede627002cbf71229bdfd37f0dde.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416841f5e6ede627002cbf71229bdfd37f0dde.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416841f5e6ede627002cbf71229bdfd37f0dde.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416843"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168439a04709d09573bf244711824473609cb.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168439a04709d09573bf244711824473609cb.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168439a04709d09573bf244711824473609cb.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416845"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168454f6f0e842f204935dde980508420e5a1.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168454f6f0e842f204935dde980508420e5a1.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168454f6f0e842f204935dde980508420e5a1.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416847"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141684708b1663c6810676d3446ed4171a6f6e8.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141684708b1663c6810676d3446ed4171a6f6e8.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141684708b1663c6810676d3446ed4171a6f6e8.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416865"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141686583940d0b72ea9906494ce5aecb0b9326.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141686583940d0b72ea9906494ce5aecb0b9326.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141686583940d0b72ea9906494ce5aecb0b9326.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op . 那么好的组合花金性价比如何，让我们简单算一下。以2个15星+1个14星组合为例。假设每张卡片随机抽中概率均为1/3，那么随机抽取的理想收益为1/3*（2个15星+1个14星），花20金全开的边际收益则为2/3*（2个15星+1个14星），即273037个宝石，1金1365个宝石。有人说这个算法有问题，这个组合，抽中15的概率很大，边际收益为1个15星+1个14星，不要忘记**的概率：2个16+1个12，我随机抽中过12星；同样1个16+12+13，我随机抽中过16星，还是按照概率比较合理。 正常情况下各种组合花金全开边际收益如下表： ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416853"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168538b386b644dd40e5824d233662a8e9e9d.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168538b386b644dd40e5824d233662a8e9e9d.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/14168538b386b644dd40e5824d233662a8e9e9d.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416855"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416855a51027a730faf1fcc1b68687f346c489.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416855a51027a730faf1fcc1b68687f346c489.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416855a51027a730faf1fcc1b68687f346c489.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op . 主要分为三类：3张卡片相同；2张卡片相同；3张均不同。还有一种情况3张均为垃圾卡片。有些性价比很低的组合比如2X14+13没有列入。从表中可以看出，2个16星组合性价比都不错，超过1金2000个宝石。 如果上述卡片出现至尊卡片，性价比和普通相比，1金多270个宝石（至尊组合免费开，考虑1/3免费获得至尊组合的机会）。详见下表： ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416857"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416857b650628d33e84e55d37f685af87f01d5.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416857b650628d33e84e55d37f685af87f01d5.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416857b650628d33e84e55d37f685af87f01d5.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416859"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141685999990f9c57d592f5d4d9855d28d72cfe.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141685999990f9c57d592f5d4d9855d28d72cfe.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141685999990f9c57d592f5d4d9855d28d72cfe.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416861"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141686195b1932b22fddb3ddf28ec53e49ed076.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141686195b1932b22fddb3ddf28ec53e49ed076.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/141686195b1932b22fddb3ddf28ec53e49ed076.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op . 我们按照心理期望值把有用的组合归并以下，详见下表。 ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1416863"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416863329169bfc464200ff7877e785644332f.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416863329169bfc464200ff7877e785644332f.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201603/08/1416863329169bfc464200ff7877e785644332f.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op . 如果你心理期望值1金2500个宝石左右，2个16星+1个（14星及以上）组合都可以花金开启。1金2000个宝石以上，2个16星组合、16星+15星+14星、2个15星+14星组合可以花金开启。1金1500个宝石以上，3个15星组合、2个15星+14星、1个16星+1个（14星及以上）组合可以花金开启。
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