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本帖最后由 八翼天使 于 2015-06-04 17:13:31 编辑
演武竞猜之实战测试——2015年6月 **首次推出了演武竞猜大猜想。看看公告内容，有点傻眼：原始的装备、等级，根本没有办法猜测每个武将的伤害。再仔细看，原来是袁术地图的雷薄。这次活动虽然奖励不高，才1888论坛银币，但确确实实考验傲视兄弟们的综合水平。
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根据云云给出的装备等级参数，可以做如下猜想：1. 由于科技只有15级，主要输出应该是徐荣，其次应该是张梁；2. 取胜的关键在于华雄的抵挡和密集战法；3. 大胜的关键在于徐荣的暴击或者暗影骑的不闪避； 初步判断，徐荣应该会存活，华雄基本会挂掉。由于上路压力小，张梁的存活是个未知数。理论判断应该是徐荣肯定存活，华雄挂掉，张梁存活可能性比较大。 ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_1116703"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201506/04/1116703f7e6ffd67ad7d6eda404eb913ea15ef3.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201506/04/1116703f7e6ffd67ad7d6eda404eb913ea15ef3.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201506/04/1116703f7e6ffd67ad7d6eda404eb913ea15ef3.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
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为了验证猜想，特在官服141服建立一个小号测试，装备、科技严格按照云云的配置。到了雷薄，打了6次才胜利，前面基本对方暗影骑闪避、华雄挂掉后我方迅速瓦解。 最后结果是徐荣、张梁存活。由于打过雷薄以后不能重复，没办法从概率上判断获胜后各个武将存活的几率。先排除华雄存活的可能性，A、C直接去掉。B是张梁、徐荣存活，D是徐荣独活，综合考虑，感觉张梁的存活概率很高，加上小号的测试，推荐B。战报如下： http://s141.as.aoshitang.com/?fid=Auoyoo_S141A201588972648
由于不可预知因素太多，尤其是暗影骑的闪避、华雄的抵挡、徐荣的暴击，单独一次测试不一定说明问题。尤其是云云的战报和测试战报很可能差别很大，所以答案B仅供参考，猜错了概不负责。大家可以从我的战报中找出可能存在的概率。 【Tips】1. 猜错了不要紧，在活动结束前可以随时修改；2. 一定要绑定傲视角色；3. 活动是单选题；4. 本人的测试仅供参考，对正确性概不负责；5. 参与论坛回复后，记下自己回复的楼层，便于下次修改； 活动参与地址http://bbs.aoshitang.com/thread-1792951-1.html
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