本帖最后由 fydyd 于 2014-12-01 10:31:03 编辑
今天一早,记者团同事009写了宝石翻牌分析,大家对是否升级和新的收益如何,已经心里有数了!
那么,问题来了,对于次数,到底买还是不买呢?在此笔者给出分析。
首先,我们看看每个级别对应的宝石数。
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_927933"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/9279338169f4ec97d4a16c086cc8f7f07ae1f4.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/9279338169f4ec97d4a16c086cc8f7f07ae1f4.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/9279338169f4ec97d4a16c086cc8f7f07ae1f4.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
其次,我们计算各种情况概率:
对于总计情况,为4的3次方,64种。
而1,1,1,对应1种,1,1,2存在1,2,1,2,1,1变形,对应3种,故综合列表如下:
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_927935"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927935aec31876a38b40d84dfc0a176f3465be.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927935aec31876a38b40d84dfc0a176f3465be.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927935aec31876a38b40d84dfc0a176f3465be.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
再次,我们各情况计算相应收益
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_927941"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927941e867ddd84e7f43933f4f2a6163e3f011.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927941e867ddd84e7f43933f4f2a6163e3f011.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927941e867ddd84e7f43933f4f2a6163e3f011.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
所以,综合单位收益如下:
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_927943"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927943db160e3cea5452cf7270622b9e28eb4f.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927943db160e3cea5452cf7270622b9e28eb4f.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/927943db160e3cea5452cf7270622b9e28eb4f.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
可见,在有双倍的情况下,购买次数的单位收益约1:65,中小R酌情考虑,非R就免了吧!
最后,再考虑一个复杂情况,购买的次数,我们可能升级,对吧?当然对。
这个时候,分析边际收益,引用009数据:
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_927945"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/9279459a2bd2eb7cb331c8790e6e184a087055.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/9279459a2bd2eb7cb331c8790e6e184a087055.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201412/01/9279459a2bd2eb7cb331c8790e6e184a087055.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
在此,像009童鞋表示感谢。
可见,344一般要升级,其他情况,因人而异了。
综上所述,按照概率论,购买次数,且双倍翻的收益,约1:65宝石,故:
1、如果没有双倍次数,坚决别买!
2、非R千万别买。
3、中小R量力而行。
4、奥特曼无视。。。。。
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