jessi
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概率是页游绕不过去的坑,这玩意儿如同DUBO,小赌怡情,大赌伤身.赢的永远是庄家,玩家没必要为了一时的得意而兴高采烈,毕竟黯然伤神是主旋律.适度就好.
全系列概率帖子会涉及淬火,由董卓引发的概率条件参考等.
至于觉醒这个概率大坑,在2017年就玩过了,当时有全区三国长达半年的精确到个人的觉醒数据记录.提出过个人对觉醒条件的看法.要看的翻我以前的帖子看.我现在已经不鸟这命题了.全都交给挂了.
本帖淬火框架:
1:成果截图
2,7件全统件数据
3.个人淬火四阶段
4,卡时间点细解
5,不败细解
6.一次性砸上万碳细解
7基本刷法
8.其它
1,成果截图如下:共计7件全统件.
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853619"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285361985a8378263f306ebc128dd0dd7b5003d.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285361985a8378263f306ebc128dd0dd7b5003d.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285361985a8378263f306ebc128dd0dd7b5003d.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853621"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285362149f4b83a00f994aae36ec45b728a0226.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285362149f4b83a00f994aae36ec45b728a0226.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285362149f4b83a00f994aae36ec45b728a0226.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853625"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853625eac23b4127f3895821a7ff8a2837c3af.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853625eac23b4127f3895821a7ff8a2837c3af.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853625eac23b4127f3895821a7ff8a2837c3af.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853626"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536262fc1e11deb3af7522fe275214734e9fe.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536262fc1e11deb3af7522fe275214734e9fe.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536262fc1e11deb3af7522fe275214734e9fe.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853628"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853628fcb1af4cf941b1e5384377b09a392e07.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853628fcb1af4cf941b1e5384377b09a392e07.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853628fcb1af4cf941b1e5384377b09a392e07.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853631"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536316558219b3087eb53ae9a559469561e48.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536316558219b3087eb53ae9a559469561e48.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536316558219b3087eb53ae9a559469561e48.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853633"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536337579c81d854992c1ba4ea649520d8407.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536337579c81d854992c1ba4ea649520d8407.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536337579c81d854992c1ba4ea649520d8407.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
2 7件统数据
123456共计备注
1件222630272424153
2件
283026282220154
3件
262629252421151
4件
023262026301250为不败
5件282423252420144
6件
263029252025155
7件
202926232630154
3.个人淬火四阶段
1).卡时间点阶段
2.)放任阶段
3.)一次性砸起码过万碳阶段
4.)放任阶段
4.卡时间点细解
在淬火刚出来不久,因现实有事情要处理,所以起得很早,
顺便卡的是早上5:50-6:10分这个时间段..两三下出统的概率还是极其高的.多的话也就十多下.
鉴于此,设定了止损点.如果22下之内未出,不管结局如何都会选择收手.
很顺利的刷了将*2件全统件.花费的碳成本比较低.
5.不败细解
在上述刷了*2件全统件却发现了件怪事,连不败的影子都没见到,
不说**不败,是不败2个字都没见到过.
就用了个小号,有过万的碳,除了偶尔旁边换下手气,大部分都点了最上面那个出特殊的坑,但是同样没见到不败2字.
这事儿惊呆我了.在初期只有一个炉子的前提下,过万的木碳,竟然不败2字没见到,这设置门槛似乎有点太高了.
翻了下论坛,找到了刷到不败的2张截图,发现了共同点.不败都是在下面那个坑刷出来了.
拿了几个小号做试验,几千木炭就见到了2星不败的影子,并且有2个号刷出了3星不败.
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853659"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853659af64fdd353154dd65f889a42a0752824.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853659af64fdd353154dd65f889a42a0752824.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/2853659af64fdd353154dd65f889a42a0752824.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853661"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536616792e332bc22b4d12b398f2a02be25be.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536616792e332bc22b4d12b398f2a02be25be.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/28536616792e332bc22b4d12b398f2a02be25be.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853663"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285366310fdfd396a8252eb7a3d474f0a7f7a85.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285366310fdfd396a8252eb7a3d474f0a7f7a85.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285366310fdfd396a8252eb7a3d474f0a7f7a85.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_2853704"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285370433c2feebf966b4ba276bfcb96844460e.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285370433c2feebf966b4ba276bfcb96844460e.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/202005/24/285370433c2feebf966b4ba276bfcb96844460e.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
6.一次性砸上万碳细解
每次攒了过万+碳,一次性开刷,刷出全统件就收手.
3万+碳才动手,共计3次,选了时间点,基本上一万多碳出一个全统件.
1次1万+碳全部打了水漂,没有一个**统.
如果是一次性出一个全统件,基本上数值会有些高于25,有些低于是25.我刷的没有一件一次成型的是全高于25的.所以是否考虑分成两次拼凑成一次全统件,以利于高数值,看个人了.
7.基本刷法
1)一次性攒碳3万+,再开动.(这数值设定的有点高,是为了保险起见,以免打水漂)
2)设好止损点
3_选下时间点.
8.其它
1)概率这事儿,提前设好止损点.到了就收手.大喜之时不要忘了之前的沉没成本.
2.)有兴趣的话,可以卡卡时间点,能花比较小的代价得到收获.但这事儿玩玩就好.不要太过认真.
3)随着时间推移,概率是会发生改变的,后续上面个坑也能出不败了.但个人觉得总体概率似乎下面个坑要高些.
只能说官方真是为了坑玩家费尽了心思.这么小的地儿也要设个坑.
4)官方后台是有大数据的,是按官方设定的概率来走不是以玩家意志为转移的,所以不要老是动不动就把概率调低这个锅给玩家来背,说什么玩家发到论坛导致官方调低了概率.要BB就直接去怼官方.
5)这数据非*阶段数据.我7个全统件已经是几个月前的了.现在鸟都不鸟这事儿了.
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