死神的右手
|
|
本帖*后由 死神的右手 于 2015-01-22 10:54:37 编辑
难得这么认真做次统计的原因:是本人曾对这篇帖子http://bbs.aoshitang.com/thread-1567563-1.html，发表了另一个不同看法的帖子:【数据】错误数据贴也能给评分?（可评分),并侥幸获得评分。但好景不长，没过一天就传来噩耗:发帖违规，惩罚10银币 http://bbs.aoshitang.com/thread-1570399-1.html
于是乎我明白了一个道理:做人做事都应脚踏实地,切不可专搞投机取巧,以逸待劳之举.所以特地花了一个晚上做了如下调查:
为了说明样本的真实性,特用牛牛截图,采集于三个号:
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_978317"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/978317f684637860bbc27470a7ac37c106ed41.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/978317f684637860bbc27470a7ac37c106ed41.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/978317f684637860bbc27470a7ac37c106ed41.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_978311"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/97831179c530f9323605cdd9e1e4af265ed370.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/97831179c530f9323605cdd9e1e4af265ed370.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/97831179c530f9323605cdd9e1e4af265ed370.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_978315"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/978315961c0c433d3675aed1a6eccf4af49b65.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/978315961c0c433d3675aed1a6eccf4af49b65.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/978315961c0c433d3675aed1a6eccf4af49b65.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_979621"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796216dc289e09d568ceaef20c70e90034e76.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796216dc289e09d568ceaef20c70e90034e76.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796216dc289e09d568ceaef20c70e90034e76.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_979623"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/979623b3d3e786c0db8ba4539888baade7c2d9.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/979623b3d3e786c0db8ba4539888baade7c2d9.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/979623b3d3e786c0db8ba4539888baade7c2d9.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_979625"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796251dc7774c72eafb9c1e0a81aa66cd2f0a.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796251dc7774c72eafb9c1e0a81aa66cd2f0a.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796251dc7774c72eafb9c1e0a81aa66cd2f0a.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_979609"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796094bec7928faa8978033b27c80398d4efb.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796094bec7928faa8978033b27c80398d4efb.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/22/9796094bec7928faa8978033b27c80398d4efb.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
ignore_js_opimg id="aimg_978319"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/9783190ffffe2e5ee90db4a3c708435b36cefa.jpg"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/9783190ffffe2e5ee90db4a3c708435b36cefa.jpg"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/9783190ffffe2e5ee90db4a3c708435b36cefa.jpg"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_opignore_js_opimg id="aimg_978313"src="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/9783138ed682514e3e659660d3db2e5347c69b.png"style="max-width: 750px;"zoomfile="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/9783138ed682514e3e659660d3db2e5347c69b.png"file="https://res-bbs.aoshitang.com/data/attachment/forum/201501/20/9783138ed682514e3e659660d3db2e5347c69b.png"class="zoom"onclick="zoom(this, this.src)"onmouseover="showMenu({'ctrlid':this.id,'pos':'12'})"alt=""//ignore_js_op
楼兰
巴蜀
闽南
合计
成功
363636108
失败
31181968
成功率
53.7%
66.7%
65.4%
61.3%
第一次成功率
第一次成功
15
22236055%
第一次失败
21141449
第二次成功率
第一次失败
21141449
29.5%
第二次成功
1110829
第二次失败
104620
第三次成功
10462015.5%
发现一:不同商人拜访的成功率并不同,按上面数据应分别接*:53.7%，66.7%，65%。以往大家普遍共识的单开楼兰*合算，单开巴蜀*不合算看来要重新评估。也说明堂哥的楼兰收益改版并不单纯，或亦为一坑。
发现二:八阵图时更多人还是选择三个商人全开,以上数据显示成功率为61%,比之前所传的50%明显要高。
发现三:若单点一次,三个平均成功率为55%,尤其楼兰成功率仅为42.8%,而点到第二次成功率为84.5%.点到第三次为100%成功.
若以以上数据统计，则平均每个商人拜访成功的行动力消耗为:10*55%+20*29.5%+30*15.5%=16.05.三人全开则平均消耗行动力:60+16.05*3=108
Ps：经过两天统计，共采集了三个号共176次数据，应当说这个容量还是偏小,有失抽样调查容量越大,数据越有效的原则.还有三个号都在时间比较接*时采集，不知这会不会也有魔力值?如果有就有失调查的随机性,就难以服从了.
*后，发表这篇帖子是希望得到一次光明正大的评分，望堂哥成全。
|
|
